Issue 05 · Week 26

Euro vs Dollar1.1385▼ -0.39%Cable1.3195▼ -1.53%Yen161.70▲ +0.25%Dollar Index100.90▲ +0.20%Aussie0.6890▼ -1.57%Gold4,081▼ -1.66%Euro vs Dollar1.1385▼ -0.39%Cable1.3195▼ -1.53%Yen161.70▲ +0.25%Dollar Index100.90▲ +0.20%Aussie0.6890▼ -1.57%Gold4,081▼ -1.66%

WEEKLY BRIEF · FRIDAY 26 JUNE 2026

Oil Sinks to Pre-War Lows

The Fed's favourite inflation gauge hit a three-year high of 4.1%, but oil has round-tripped almost its entire war premium, falling back below $72. The dollar held firm, gold fell a fourth week, and the UK's prime minister resigned. Everything, explained from first principles.

PCE INFLATION

4.1%

three-year high

BRENT CRUDE

$72

back to pre-war

USD/JPY

161.7

weakest since 1986

GOLD

$4,081

fourth weekly fall

Market Snapshot, Weekly Close

Euro vs Dollar

EUR/USD

1.1385▼ -0.39%

Cable

GBP/USD

1.3195▼ -1.53%

Yen

USD/JPY

161.70▲ +0.25%

Dollar Index

DXY

100.90▲ +0.20%

Aussie

AUD/USD

0.6890▼ -1.57%

Gold

XAU/USD

4,081▼ -1.66%

PART ONE · WEEK IN REVIEW

What Happened This Week

The five stories that moved markets, with plain-English context on each one.

What Moved Markets, click to expand

📈

PCEThe Fed's Favourite Gauge Hits 4.1%

PCE inflation rose to a three-year high, but the monthly pace came in softer than feared.

−

📖 QUICK EXPLAINER

PCE is the inflation measure the Federal Reserve targets, even more than CPI. It tracks what households actually spend, and it is the number that drives rate decisions.

Headline PCE rose to 4.1% in the year to May, the highest since April 2023 and a third straight monthly acceleration, lifted by the energy spike from the Iran war. But the monthly gain was 0.4%, below the 0.5% feared, and core PCE was 3.4%, exactly as expected. Spending stayed strong at 0.7% and income rose 0.7%.

💡 WHY IT MATTERS FOR TRADING

Hot, but not hotter than feared. Because the monthly pace was in line rather than alarming, traders trimmed their bets on a July hike, the dollar eased slightly and gold bounced. Even so, at 4.1% the data all but rules out any rate cut this year.

🛢️

OIL/IRANOil Round-Trips the Entire War Premium

Brent settled below $72 and WTI under $70, back to pre-conflict levels, as tankers left the Strait of Hormuz.

🥇

GOLDGold's Fourth Weekly Fall, Then a Bounce

Gold slid toward $4,000 on the firm dollar before rebounding to about $4,081 on the in-line PCE.

🇬🇧

UKStarmer Resigns, the Pound Takes It in Stride

The UK prime minister stepped down, but sterling and gilts barely moved. It was already priced in.

🇯🇵

JPYYen Hits Its Weakest Since 1986

USD/JPY held above 161 despite the BoJ hike, as the wide US rate gap kept pulling money to the dollar.

FINAL WORD

The week confirmed the new regime: inflation is high but no longer accelerating out of control, and the dollar is firm. PCE hit a three-year high of 4.1% but came in line, while oil round-tripped almost its entire war premium back below $72. Gold fell a fourth straight week before bouncing, and in the UK, Starmer resigned with barely a ripple. The week ahead is jobs week, brought forward to Thursday, the test of whether the labour market can take the hike the Fed is now signalling. Preparation beats prediction.

PART TWO · WEEK AHEAD

What to Watch Next Week

Jobs week, brought forward by the US holiday, plus the data that tests the Fed's hike signal. All times London BST.

Upcoming Events

🔥

CRITICALTHU 2 JULY · 13:30 BST

US Jobs Report (June)

EXP: brought forward by the July 4 holiday

📖 QUICK EXPLAINER

Non-Farm Payrolls is the monthly count of US jobs created, the most market-moving release there is. It lands Thursday this month, not Friday, because US markets close for Independence Day.

The Fed has signalled a hike. Jobs is the test of whether the economy can take one. A strong report hardens the hike case; a weak one complicates it, just as inflation runs at 4%.

SCENARIOS

STRONGHike odds firm. Dollar extends, gold pressured.

IN-LINEDollar steady. Focus stays on the inflation path.

WEAKHike doubts grow. Dollar eases, gold and risk rally.

📊

HIGHEUROZONE CPI EARLY WEEK · ECB SINTRA

Eurozone Flash CPI and ECB Sintra

EXP: the euro's main catalyst

📖 QUICK EXPLAINER

Flash CPI is the first estimate of euro-area inflation. At the same time, the ECB's annual Sintra forum gathers central bankers, so policy signals come thick and fast.

Eurozone inflation has been creeping higher and the ECB has turned more hawkish since its June hike. A hot CPI plus hawkish Sintra remarks is what the euro needs to resist a firm dollar.

SCENARIOS

HOT / HAWKISHEUR/USD finds support, hike risk builds.

SOFT / DOVISHEuro stays a dollar story and drifts lower.

🛢️

CRITICALONGOING · HEADLINE RISK

Iran, Hormuz and a Fragile Peace

EXP: Strait flows · ceasefire compliance

📖 QUICK EXPLAINER

Oil is still the master variable for inflation, and oil hinges on whether the Strait of Hormuz keeps reopening. The ceasefire is signed but not yet secure.

Friday's tanker attack and Trump's accusation of a ceasefire violation show how fragile this is. Continued reopening pushes oil and inflation lower; a breakdown spikes them and revives the haven bid.

SCENARIOS

FLOWS NORMALISEOil falls further. Disinflationary and risk-friendly.

ESCALATIONOil spikes. Inflation fears and gold's haven bid return.

🗓️

MEDIUMISM MON/WED · US CLOSED FRI 3 JULY

ISM Surveys and a Short US Week

EXP: ISM PMIs · half-year-end flows

📖 QUICK EXPLAINER

The ISM surveys gauge US factory and services activity. This week also ends the first half, when funds rebalance, and the US shuts on Friday for Independence Day, thinning liquidity.

After a huge first half, half-year-end rebalancing can move pairs on flow alone, and a shortened, thin US week around the jobs print raises the risk of sharp, low-liquidity swings.

SCENARIOS

STRONG ISMSupports the dollar and the hike case.

THIN-MARKET WHIPSAWFlow-driven moves that can fade fast.

Key Levels to Watch

PAIR

LEVEL

TYPE

NOTE

EUR/USD

1.1350 / 1.1450

SUPPORT

Soft on the firm dollar. Eurozone CPI and US jobs are the catalysts.

GBP/USD

1.3100 / 1.3300

WATCH

Down near 1.32 on the leadership race. The political risk premium is back.

USD/JPY

161.00 / 162.00

WATCH

Weakest yen since 1986. Intervention risk at the top of the range.

AUD/USD

0.6850 / 0.7000

WATCH

Below 0.69 on the firm dollar and softer commodities. Sticky core CPI keeps the RBA hawkish.

DXY

100.00 / 101.50

WATCH

Holding near a one-year high. The jobs report is the next driver.

XAU/USD

$4,000 / $4,150

SUPPORT

Fourth weekly fall, then a bounce. $4,000 is the line to hold.

FOR INFORMATIONAL PURPOSES ONLY
NOT FINANCIAL ADVICE · CAPITAL AT RISK

Issue 05 · Week 26

WEEKLY BRIEF · FRIDAY 26 JUNE 2026

Oil Sinks to Pre-War Lows

PCE inflation hit a three-year high, but oil crashed back to pre-war lows and the pound shrugged off Starmer's exit. Here is the week, and what comes next.

PCE INFLATION

4.1%

three-year high

BRENT CRUDE

$72

back to pre-war

USD/JPY

161.7

weakest since 1986

GOLD

$4,081

fourth weekly fall

PART ONE · WEEK IN REVIEW

What Happened This Week

The five stories that moved markets.

Market Snapshot

Euro vs Dollar

EUR/USD

1.1385▼ -0.39%

Cable

GBP/USD

1.3195▼ -1.53%

Yen

USD/JPY

161.70▲ +0.25%

Dollar Index

DXY

100.90▲ +0.20%

Aussie

AUD/USD

0.6890▼ -1.57%

Gold

XAU/USD

4,081▼ -1.66%

What Moved Markets, tap to expand

📈

PCEThe Fed's Favourite Gauge Hits 4.1%

PCE inflation rose to a three-year high, but the monthly pace came in softer than feared.

−

📖 QUICK EXPLAINER

PCE is the inflation measure the Federal Reserve targets, even more than CPI. It tracks what households actually spend, and it is the number that drives rate decisions.

💡 WHY IT MATTERS FOR TRADING

🛢️

OIL/IRANOil Round-Trips the Entire War Premium

Brent settled below $72 and WTI under $70, back to pre-conflict levels, as tankers left the Strait of Hormuz.

🥇

GOLDGold's Fourth Weekly Fall, Then a Bounce

Gold slid toward $4,000 on the firm dollar before rebounding to about $4,081 on the in-line PCE.

🇬🇧

UKStarmer Resigns, the Pound Takes It in Stride

The UK prime minister stepped down, but sterling and gilts barely moved. It was already priced in.

🇯🇵

JPYYen Hits Its Weakest Since 1986

USD/JPY held above 161 despite the BoJ hike, as the wide US rate gap kept pulling money to the dollar.

FINAL WORD

NEXT

PART TWO · WEEK AHEAD

What to Watch Next Week

Jobs week, brought forward by the US holiday. Times London BST.

Upcoming Events

🔥

CRITICALTHU 2 JULY · 13:30 BST

US Jobs Report (June)

EXP: brought forward by the July 4 holiday

📖 QUICK EXPLAINER

Non-Farm Payrolls is the monthly count of US jobs created, the most market-moving release there is. It lands Thursday this month, not Friday, because US markets close for Independence Day.

The Fed has signalled a hike. Jobs is the test of whether the economy can take one. A strong report hardens the hike case; a weak one complicates it, just as inflation runs at 4%.

SCENARIOS

STRONGHike odds firm. Dollar extends, gold pressured.

IN-LINEDollar steady. Focus stays on the inflation path.

WEAKHike doubts grow. Dollar eases, gold and risk rally.

📊

HIGHEUROZONE CPI EARLY WEEK · ECB SINTRA

Eurozone Flash CPI and ECB Sintra

EXP: the euro's main catalyst

📖 QUICK EXPLAINER

Flash CPI is the first estimate of euro-area inflation. At the same time, the ECB's annual Sintra forum gathers central bankers, so policy signals come thick and fast.

Eurozone inflation has been creeping higher and the ECB has turned more hawkish since its June hike. A hot CPI plus hawkish Sintra remarks is what the euro needs to resist a firm dollar.

SCENARIOS

HOT / HAWKISHEUR/USD finds support, hike risk builds.

SOFT / DOVISHEuro stays a dollar story and drifts lower.

🛢️

CRITICALONGOING · HEADLINE RISK

Iran, Hormuz and a Fragile Peace

EXP: Strait flows · ceasefire compliance

📖 QUICK EXPLAINER

Oil is still the master variable for inflation, and oil hinges on whether the Strait of Hormuz keeps reopening. The ceasefire is signed but not yet secure.

Friday's tanker attack and Trump's accusation of a ceasefire violation show how fragile this is. Continued reopening pushes oil and inflation lower; a breakdown spikes them and revives the haven bid.

SCENARIOS

FLOWS NORMALISEOil falls further. Disinflationary and risk-friendly.

ESCALATIONOil spikes. Inflation fears and gold's haven bid return.

🗓️

MEDIUMISM MON/WED · US CLOSED FRI 3 JULY

ISM Surveys and a Short US Week

EXP: ISM PMIs · half-year-end flows

📖 QUICK EXPLAINER

The ISM surveys gauge US factory and services activity. This week also ends the first half, when funds rebalance, and the US shuts on Friday for Independence Day, thinning liquidity.

After a huge first half, half-year-end rebalancing can move pairs on flow alone, and a shortened, thin US week around the jobs print raises the risk of sharp, low-liquidity swings.

SCENARIOS

STRONG ISMSupports the dollar and the hike case.

THIN-MARKET WHIPSAWFlow-driven moves that can fade fast.

Key Levels

PAIR

LEVEL

TYPE

EUR/USD

1.1350 / 1.1450

SUPPORT

GBP/USD

1.3100 / 1.3300

WATCH

USD/JPY

161.00 / 162.00

WATCH

AUD/USD

0.6850 / 0.7000

WATCH

DXY

100.00 / 101.50

WATCH

XAU/USD

$4,000 / $4,150

SUPPORT

FOR INFORMATIONAL PURPOSES ONLY
NOT FINANCIAL ADVICE · CAPITAL AT RISK